Population Development: What Kerala can Teach India and China

The state of Kerala is wedged between the Arabian Sea to the west and the Western Ghats to the east covers only 1.18% of India's landmass. Situated at the southwestern tip of India, it has Tamil Nadu and Karnataka as its neighboring states. Kerala's coast runs 580 km in length, while the state itself varies from 35-120 km in width.

This tiny southern agricultural state of India is home to 3.5% of India's people. This lush green and watery state has a high density of population – 819 persons per sq. km, about three times higher than the national average. It draws nature loving tourists from across the world. Over the 100 years, Kerala's population increased five times from 6 million in 1901 to 32 million in 2001.

Over the years, Kerala’s population has grown at a slower pace than rest of India. Its population growth per decade has been just 9.42%, less than half the all-India average of 21.34%. It is appreciable that Kerala achieved it despite a sluggish growth in economy.

The population numbers of Kerala compare with Canada, Algeria, Morocco, and Uganda and are somewhat larger than Afghanistan, Nepal, Malaysia, and Suadi Arabia.

Historically, Kerala has been a women friendly state and consistently improved the female/male ratio during the last 100 years. It has the highest sex ratio in the country – 1,058 females for every 1,000 males. In Kerala, women constitute 51.4 percent of the total population of the state and outnumber men by 0.9 million. This is in striking contrast with the situation in China that reportedly has a shortage of women by over 30 millions, which is equivalent to the entire population of Kerala.

The state of Kerala has one of the highest literacy rates (89.9%) and life expectancy (73 years) in India. Its fertility rate is below sub-replacement level and the infant mortality rate (around 12 deaths per 1,000 live births) is among the best in the country.

Sociologists attribute these achievements to Kerala’s better healthcare, high literacy rate, and better standard of living compared to other states of India. Kerala's human development indices — elimination of poverty, primary level education, and health care — are among the best in India.

Kerala's health care system has garnered international acclaim, with UNICEF and the World Health Organization (WHO) designating Kerala the world's first "baby-friendly state". For example, more than 95% births in Kerala are hospital-delivered. The state also nurtures several traditional forms of medical practices – apart from Ayurveda, siddha, and Unani, many endangered and endemic modes of traditional medicine, including Kalari, Marmachikitsa, and Vishavaidyam are practiced in Kerala.

A steadily aging population (11.2% is over 60 years) and low birthrate (18 per 1,000) make Kerala one of the few regions of the Developing World to have undergone the "demographic transition" exhibited only by developed nations such as Canada, Japan, and Norway.

Kerala has been setting an example of potentials of human development over last several decades. This beautiful state has emerged ahead of the economically advanced states of India, such as Gujrat and Maharashtra, in terms human development index. It also has the lowest rate of population growth, achieved without coercive sterilization policies of family planning ministry.

It attained below replacement fertility during early 1990s. It has several other distinctions among the other states of India. Kerala has the lowest crude death rate (around 6 per thousand), lowest infant mortality (13 per 1000 live births), highest life expectancy at birth (73 years) and highest literacy rate (91 per cent).

The case of Kerala is very unique because the demographic transition was achieved in the absence of a high level economic development as prescribed in the theory of demographic transition, and observed in the West in the late 19^th and early 20^th centuries. The human development model of fertility transition in Kerala appears rational and appealing and provides data for a more accurate theoretical formulation for explanation of fertility transition in developing countries.

Kerala is widely cited as a unique example of having positive demographic transition despite poor economic development. It is a model, not only for the rest of India but also for the world, in demographic achievements and has attracted wide attention.

Noted author and environmentalist, Bill McKibben, described as "the world's best green journalist” by Time magazine, has summarized Kerala's unusual socioeconomic and demographic situation:

“Kerala, a state in India, is a bizarre anomaly among developing nations, a place that offers real hope for the future of the Third World. Though not much larger than Maryland, Kerala has a population as big as California's and a per capita annual income of less than $300. But its infant mortality rate is very low, its literacy rate among the highest on Earth, and its birthrate below America's and falling faster. Kerala's residents live nearly as long as Americans or Europeans. Though mostly a land of paddy-covered plains, statistically Kerala stands out as the Mount Everest of social development; there's truly no place like it.”

Kerala achieved demographic transition without economic development as is usually expected from the experience of West. It underscores the power of people development as a way to achieve population stabilization. It also highlights the fact that imposing smaller family size is NOT at all required to reduce population growth. Indian government should learn from Kerala and shift the focus of family planning efforts to socio-cultural issues of raising age at marriage, stress women education, and involving them in the process of development.

Kerala also highlights the issue of gender equality. Coercive state policies such as the One Child Policy of China, combined with gender prejudice against women, has led to a highly disturbed sex ration. The surplus “nation of 30 – 50 million unmarried men” in China has the potential to precipitate social instability and sexual violence related crimes that can not be simply wished away.

This article is inspired by the one day roundtable held in New Delhi (Jan 12, 2011) on “Population and family Planning: Contemporary Challenges & Opportunities”, organized by the National Coalition on Population Stabilization, Family Planning & Reproductive Rights.