Population Explosion in India? Get the Facts Straight

Current annual rate of population growth is estimated to be somewhere in the 1.4 – 1.7% range. About 4 – 5 decades ago, the population was growing at around 3% per year. There is all-round slowing down of the rate of population growth in all states of India. The average number of children per woman was about 6 in 1950’s, now it is less than 3. So, clearly there is nothing like population explosion in India. The fear psychosis of “Population Explosion” and “Population Bomb” generated by some Western intellectuals is just a reflection of their own feelings un-supported by facts on the ground. In fact, the growth rate of world's population has been continuously decreasing over recent decades.

The Malthusian assumption that high population growth necessarily leads to overcrowding, poverty, food shortage, environmental deterioration, and poor quality of life does not seem to hold any ground looking at the realities of last few decades. On the contrary, population growth can also be a major resource for economic growth. China and India are currently the fastest growing economies in the world. Therefore, the real issue should be “Population Development” and not “Size of the population”.

About 18 million people continued to be added every year in India because more than 50% of its population is in the reproductive age. It is this large base of young people that imparts momentum to the growth of population. Further, the high birth rates of the previous years also add the number of people in the reproductive age group. According to Population projections by the Registrar General of India, about 60% growth is due to momentum alone.

Population momentum is the tendency for population growth to continue even after replacement-level fertility (2.1 children per woman) has been achieved. It is caused by a relatively high proportion of people in their childbearing years – by a population that is dominated by people in the reproductive age group. So, momentum operates through the population age distribution. It is important because of the magnitude and duration of its effects.

The importance of momentum as a cause of population growth has increased as fertility levels throughout the world have declined. In 1994, John Bongaarts estimated that population growth due to momentum could account for nearly half of world population increase during the twenty-first century.

Often there is a gap of few decades between achieving replacement level fertility (two children per couple) and population stabilization – when birth and death rates become equal. This is similar to stopping a car by applying breaks – it continues for some distance before coming to an halt.

India had set itself the goal of attaining replacement levels of fertility by 2010 to achieve the larger goal of population stabilization by 2045 - a gap of 35 years to account for population momentum. However, it will miss the target by a few years so population stabilization will be achieved around 2050 or beyond.

Bongaart has pointed out that the momentum driven growth could be reduced simply by raising the average age of childbearing. He also calculated that a 2.5 year increase in age at first birth would reduce population growth momentum by 21%.

Typical ways to check population momentum are by delaying marriage and first pregnancy, and then by spacing births.

Natural population increase is the difference between the number of births and deaths. Although both these rates are declining, but the birth rate is still remains high due to two factors. The first factor is births due to unwanted and/or unplanned pregnancies. These are children born due to lack of availability or poor access to contraceptive services. This is also known as the "unmet need". Here is how it can happen:

…one day my husband told me that he wanted a child after 2–3 years. I told him that I also want a child after 2–3 years. But he said that he did not know how not to have a child so he would ask someone, but then next month I found that I was pregnant. (18-year-old, first time pregnant woman in a small town in India)

And the second factor is the desire for larger families (also called "wanted fertility"). As education and awareness is increasing people are recognizing the importance of smaller family sizes. The wanted fertility comes from socio-cultural dimensions; for example, preference for a male child and high infant mortality. When parents are not sure of survival of all babies, they tend to have more number of children. Reduction of infant mortality rate by raising the quality of healthcare services and increase in awareness about reproductive health issues will ultimately take care of this issue.

Certainly, the birth and death rate dynamics is changing and India is at an important stage of demographic transition.

Stated simply, it is a transition from a stable population with high mortality and high fertility to a stable population with low mortality and low fertility. During the transition population growth and changes in the age structure of the population are inevitable. Most of India’s population growth in next two decades will be caused by increased numbers of people in the 15 to 59 years age group - the working age.

In India the demographic transition has been relatively slow but steady. As a result India was able to avoid adverse effects of too rapid changes in the number and age structure of the population, as is seen in China. Read, for example, The Dark Side of One Child Policy of China.

According to United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), raising mother’s age at first birth from 18 to 23 could reduce population momentum by over 40%.

Although the legal age of girl’s marriage in India is 18, it is not followed in several areas of the country. Many pockets of the country have tradition of child marriage. About 46% of young women marry before the legal age (18 years) and 63% by 20 years. The proportion of child marriage is significantly higher in rural areas of Bihar, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, and Rajasthan as shown in the chart at the right.

Early marriage leads to early child birth. The young woman has hardly any idea about contraceptives and can’t delay pregnancy and end up giving birth within the first year of marriage. According to 2001 census, about three hundred thousand young girls below 15 years gave birth to at least one child in a rather economically better southern state of Karnataka.

Therefore, efforts to raise actual age at marriage will not only significantly reduce population momentum, it will also prevent ill effects of pregnancies at tender age.

Historically, the Indian family planning efforts have revolved around permanent termination of pregnancy – sterilization. Over 96% of it is female sterilization. Currently, also this is the most popularly offered method of birth control. Needless to say it is totally unsuitable for those who are just starting families and for the growing population who enter into physical relationship outside the marriage. Their prime need is temporary contraceptives and spacing methods. It has been estimated that over 20% of all live births are the result of unplanned or un-timed pregnancies. In facts, abortion numbers provide another indication of the magnitude of the problem.

Sterilization, when available as the most offered choice, actually encourages people to have quick babies and then terminate permanently. Ironically, it actually adds to momentum, as has been argued previously. Indian family planning officials, so far, have failed to think on the line of controlling population momentum and still remain obsessed with sterilization and “targets of sterilization”.

They will have to go beyond clinical approach to population stabilization and fight the strength of momentum from the social plane. Because, it involves policy attempts to raise age at marriage, propagation of awareness about delaying first birth and then space further births. All these, in turn, need raising female education level, particularly in the rural areas, and empowering them through right knowledge of the pros and cons of various issues related to reproductive health.

All talks of population explosion or a population bomb ticking is India comes from 200 year old Malthusian thinking and does not stand the light of actual facts. No doubt, world population is increasing, particularly in the less developed world, but even globally the rate of population growth is slowing.

Rather than concentrating on sterilizing people, the population planners will do bigger justice if they focus on stemming the momentum aspect of population growth. Female education and delaying age at marriage are two best and dignified solutions to go about it. The traditional thinking of population control should be redefined in terms of population development, particularly of females.

This article is inspired by the one day roundtable held in New Delhi (Jan 12, 2011) on “Population and family Planning: Contemporary Challenges & Opportunities”, organized by the National Coalition on Population Stabilization, Family Planning & Reproductive Rights.